CALGARY—In a year where Albertans will cast ballots in two major elections, a new University of Calgary study shows some Calgarians believe the economy is in worse shape than many measures indicate.
Political parties in both the provincial and federal campaigns this year have already started building their platforms, and as these elections draw closer, there will be a lot of messaging for Albertans to cut through before they cast a ballot.
The authors of the report released this week — which they say highlights the difference between perception and reality for voters on the economy — say it’s important that voters think critically about the messaging they get from political sources.
According to their study, two-thirds of polled Calgarians feel the local and provincial economies have worsened in the past year. The study posed an identical set of questions to the same 748 Calgarians in 2017 and 2018 to judge how their views had changed in a year’s time.
But the authors also point out most measures show Alberta’s economy remains relatively strong in Canada. Alberta’s income and employment are both high, while average weekly earnings at $1,155 are higher than any other province.
One of the report’s authors, U of C assistant political science professor Jack Lucas, said he was struck by the extent to which negativity about the economy was instead reflected more by things like political affiliation or age, rather than who was most economically vulnerable.
“The people who are struggling to return to work in Calgary are young people, and particularly young men,” Lucas said.
“But then we see that young people are among the most optimistic. A good deal of them still think the economy got worse in 2018, but it’s a smaller proportion than in the other categories.”
Political affiliation can influence Albertans’ economic views from the parties picking specific data points to support their platforms, but that may not tell the full story. The report’s other author, U of C associate economics professor Trevor Tombe, said what bothers him is when this messaging leads to falsehoods influencing policy conversations.
“The carbon tax has a lot of that about it. Adding thousands of dollars to the cost of living, or in the case of this most recent example, the $50,000 bill for that church, or whether or not the carbon tax somehow is single-handedly responsible for mediocre rates of overall economic growth, or (Ontario Premier) Doug Ford’s claim around it causing a recession in the future,” Tombe said.
“What I find disappointing is when the conversation is dominated by hyperbole and claims that are not backed up in data or evidence.”
Tombe said what’s important when analyzing the Alberta economy is the distinction that there are areas of weakness and not the entire aggregate economy is weak.
“It’s important to properly diagnose the situation you’re in if you’re going to have any hope of having a cure that’s appropriately prescribed,” Tombe said.
“The challenge at the moment is really a concentrated one that’s largely accounted for by weakness among young people. And that’s going to call for different types of government responses than if it was aggregate weaknesses, like during a recession.”
David Taras, Mount Royal University’s chair in media studies, praised the value of credible studies from Statistics Canada or neutral government agencies to combat misinformation. Taras added strong media coverage and an attentive public to keep untrue political arguments in check are also important.
But he was optimistic about voters’ ability to detect when something isn’t right.
“People have a really good B.S. barometer for things that just come out of the blue, or come from politicians and don’t seem to be part of their reality,” Taras said.
“You need the checks and balances in a system where if a politician comes up with a claim that’s not true, well that will be countered.”
But Taras warned there are moments of “fantasy” in politics where people can get carried away by claims and policies that don’t exist. Internationally, he pointed to Brexit as an example, where many voters were falsely led to believe Europe would give Britain what it wanted after it separated from the European Union.
More locally, he sees the debate around equalization payments as an example of a policy argument that’s drifted away from reality, to make Albertans believe money goes directly from their province to less wealthy provinces.
“Equalization is a federal program. Money doesn’t leave the government of Alberta to go to Quebec or to go to the Maritime provinces,” Taras said.
“That whole debate has been torqued into something very emotional and it’s this ‘Albertans are being robbed’ (argument). And I think that has been dangerous and misunderstood.”
Tombe said it’s nothing new for politicians to cherry pick data — in Alberta or anywhere else. But he said voters should demand data, nuanced messages about the economy, and hard analysis instead of talking points to support their beliefs.
“Expose yourself to lots of different messages and think carefully about them,” Tombe said. “Try to get information from a broad range of sources and then do some critical thinking on your own. Don’t just take claims from one’s own favoured politician at face value.”
