Danielle Smith’s pension pantomime

Presented by

Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Kyle | Follow Politico Canada

Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook.

In today’s edition:

→ Is Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH about to unite the Rest of Canada?

→ Add one more to the list of Russian nationals taking Ottawa to court.

→ JUSTIN TRUDEAU heads to D.C. under pressure to resolve Canada’s tax fight.

DRIVING THE DAY

Did someone forward Ottawa Playbook your way? Click here to sign up for your own edition. It’s free!

PENSION DRAMA — The country’s finance ministers meet virtually today as Alberta presses Ottawa with the very high-stakes prospect of leaving the Canada Pension Plan.

Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH has touted splitting from the CPP as a “fairer” option for Albertans, after a study commissioned by the province suggested an initial savings of upwards of C$5 billion by moving money out of it — a disputed number, but not an issue for Smith.

— Political pen-upmanship: Sparks flew this week in the lead-up to the meeting via a testy exchange of … letters.

Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND wrote to Smith dismissing the notion that Albertans would pay less in pension contributions under a provincial plan, calling the math “flawed” and the project a “costly and irreversible mistake.”

— Alberta vs. rest of Canada: All eyes on what Alberta Fin. Min. NATE HORNER has to say about the meeting, not to mention his provincial counterparts, as they lay their cards on the table.

“I would not want to be Nate Horner walking into this meeting because Alberta is going to be on an island,” Mount Royal University poli sci prof. DUANE BRATT tells Playbook.

“Typically, when you have these sorts of ministerial meetings, there are allies that provincial governments have. But the typical allies that Alberta has, like the DOUG FORD [Ontario] government, or the SCOTT MOE [Saskatchewan] government, they don’t have on this file.”

— Where the fight will be: Over the 53 percent number. That’s how much Alberta would get from the CPP’s base assets, according to the big-deal controversial report.

— Sticking-point surprise: The carbon tax will also be a key issue at the meet, an issue those provinces can rally around, as Moe vowed Thursday his Finance Minister DONNA HARPAUER will raise it “whether it’s on Minister Freeland’s agenda or not.”

The idea of an independent Alberta plan has been around for a long time but, Bratt notes in the Globe, tends to only seriously flare up when the Liberals run Ottawa.

Smith raised the pension issue during her leadership bid but did not during the election campaign, and has her work cut out in convincing the public.

“It remains mind boggling to me why Smith is pursuing this, why she is exerting so much political capital on an issue that is deeply unpopular, and has been deeply unpopular for 20 years,” Bratt said.

— The up spin: Conservative pundit ERIKA BAROOTES, who used to work in the premier’s office, is launching an Alberta insiders podcast called The Discourse with former NDP Premier RACHEL NOTLEY staffer CHERYL OATES later today that will tackle the APP/CPP dispute.

“This is coming at a time where there’s a lot of angst and frustration with Ottawa,” Barootes tells Playbook.

“Having a conversation around fairness, around one-size-does-not-fit-all for each jurisdiction, the missteps and the dumpster fire of the Liberal government right now, is a strategy she can leverage in her ongoing unity with other leaders on things like the clean electricity regs and the carbon tax.”

She said it’s fair to call for a meeting like this to get feedback and there’s political opportunity for Smith if the issue is handled properly, although there’s a long way to go for Albertans to “truly understand what an Alberta pension plan would mean for them.”

— The timeline: Alberta gets feedback from the public through an online survey and town halls due by May 2024. If the issue remains on the table, the province could face a referendum as early as 2025 — and linger in the air during the next federal election.

Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE has urged Alberta to remain in the CPP, but pins the blame on Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU for sparking this whole thing by “attacking the Alberta economy.”

— The down spin: Shakti Strategies principal SABRINA GROVER said while the issue plays to the feeling among Smith’s base that the province needs to be “sticking it to Ottawa” for not being treated fairly as a major economic contributor, it’s “not a winner” and an easy gimme for the federal Liberals.

They’ll want to engage on it to boost their support outside of Alberta “because it reinforces the stability of people’s pensions” and shows them “standing up for seniors.”

— Watch for: A potential revival of talking points surrounding the AIMco scandal, when the provincial public pension manager lost some C$2.1 billion in the market.

For your radar


SANCTION FIGHT — Add another name to the growing list of Russian nationals taking Ottawa to court for slapping them with sanctions.

NATALIA ALYMOVA, a 44-year-old banker who rose to an executive position at Russia’s largest bank, filed an application for judicial review in Federal Court on Oct. 26.

Her complaint: She doesn’t work where the Canadians say she does.

Canada was not alone in sanctioning Alymova. The U.S. Treasury Department added her to its list on May 8, 2022, citing her employment at Sberbank — a majority state-owned financial institution the Americans said is “uniquely important to the Russian economy.”

The U.S. and several major allies — Canada, the U.K., Japan, Australia and New Zealand — started targeting Sberbank officials shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine.

— Quitting time: Alymova claims to have started the process of resigning as senior vice president of Sberbank’s wealth management branch in March 2022. According to the court docs, she sought German visas at the time for her family, including her husband and three kids. Her husband started working in Germany the following month.

On May 11, 2022, Alymova submitted a letter of resignation, which she says was formalized on May 17. She and her three kids waited until summer to move to Germany, “to allow their children to finish the school year without interruption.”

— Late on the draw: Global Affairs Canada added Alymova to its sanctions list on May 27, 10 days after she says she quit Sberbank — based, the court docs say, on “outdated and incorrect information.”

Alymova accuses Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY and GAC of failing to respond to her delisting application within a legislated 90-day timeframe — and ignoring her correspondence: “The Minister simply remained inert, despite her statutory obligations.”

Nearly two months ago, the U.S. Treasury Department removed her from its own list.

The government hasn’t responded in court to Alymova’s application, and didn’t respond to Playbook after more than a day.

— Parallels: In October, Global Affairs Canada delisted Russian economist IGOR SHATALOV following a similar legal challenge.

ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR


WHITE HOUSE-BOUND — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is headed to Washington for the Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity Leaders’ Summit.

Trudeau joins U.S. President JOE BIDEN and leaders from Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Chile, Uruguay, the Dominican Republic and Barbados at APEP.

— DST looms over trip: The Business Council of Canada is pushing for Trudeau to abandon moving ahead unilaterally on a digital services tax aimed at American tech giants operating in Canada.

The Biden administration and U.S. lawmakers have made noise about retaliatory actions if

Canada goes it alone — something Ottawa insists it will do should the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development be unable to broker an agreement on a global tax deal by the end of the year.

The DST has been a regular feature of bilateral meetings between International Trade Minister MARY NG and U.S. Trade Representative KATHERINE TAI.

U.S. Ambassador DAVID COHEN used a stage in Ottawa this week to reiterate his government’s concerns about the Canadian position. “We’re either going to have to have agreement or we’re going to have a big fight,” he told a business audience at the Château Laurier.

Business Council head GOLDY HYDER was less diplomatic in his Thursday letter to the PM.

“As I have warned your government on several occasions, Canada’s economic interests will be severely harmed if Canada continues to defy the overwhelming OECD consensus,” he wrote. “Amid growing economic uncertainty around the globe, Canada cannot afford a costly trade war with our most important trading partner.”

— Related reading for Pro subscribers: What’s preoccupying Biden during the summit.

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Washington, D.C. for the Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity Leaders’ Summit where he will meet with Biden and other leaders.

— Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND hosts a virtual meeting with the nation’s finance ministers.

WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN


UP: MARK CARNEY, who polished up his leadership image by staking out a principled position on the sudden reversal on the carbon tax for home heating oil. Even PIERRE POILIEVRE mused in QP that Carney is next in line for Trudeau’s job.

DOWN: The carbon tax’s life expectancy.

MEDIA ROOM

— “Rampant Islamophobia is costing Canadian Muslims their peace of mind, their physical well-being and even their lives,” the Senate human rights committee warns after a year-long study.

— A new Angus Reid Institute survey finds three-quarters of Canadians think there is “no real debate” in Parliament. Ouch.

— CP’s SARAH RITCHIE details how CBC President CATHERINE TAIT and Conservative MPs RACHAEL THOMAS and MELISSA LANTSMAN tussled at a tense committee hearing.

— The House transport committee has released a study focused on “building a more climate resilient Canada.”

— CBC’s MURRAY BREWSTER reports on the PBO’s costing of the F-35s, which pegs the price tag as high as $73.9 billion

— Spark Advocacy consultant HARRISON RUESS writes for The Line: Did the Liberals actually think this carbon tax thing through?

— ANDY RIGA writes in the Gazette that Quebec’s tuition hikes could cost McGill some C$94 million and result in major job cuts.

PROZONE


If you’re a subscriber, don’t miss our latest policy newsletter from SUE ALLAN and NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY: Trudeau urged to stand down on DST.

Some highlights:

→ The Business Council of Canada lobby group is urging Trudeau to abandon his government’s unilateral pursuit of a digital services tax.

→ A Q&A with Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE from the AI Summit in London.

→ “High dollar, high impact” cyber-related tax evasion investigations.

In other news for Pro subscribers:

— India throws new snag into WTO dispute settlement reform talks.

— U.S. Forest Service proposes allowing carbon storage in national forests.

— Climate fight needs big funding boost, report says.

— Four things we just learned from the (un)redactions in the FTC’s Amazon lawsuit.

— RISHI SUNAK the influencer: How the UK’s AI summit surprised the skeptics.

— Top Ukrainian general’s gloomy view of Russia war fuels military aid debate.

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD to Minister of Indigenous Services PATTY HAJDU and Liberal MP ALEXANDRA MENDÈS (60!). Former NDP MP CHARMAINE BORG.

Celebrating Saturday: RODGER CUZNER, newly named senator.

Celebrating Sunday: MP HELENA JACZEK, Conservative MP PIERRE PAUL-HUS, Senators MARY COYLE and RATNA OMIDVAR; JULIAN OVENS of Crestview Strategy, and JONATHAN KALLES of McMillan Vantage.

Send birthdays to [email protected] .

Spotted: JACQUELINE O’NEILL, Canada’s ambassador for women, peace and security, gave a warning before using unparliamentary language in a Senate committee, calling the government’s Gender-based Analysis Plus “a goddamn national treasure.”

Liberal MP DAVID LAMETTI and former senator DENNIS DAWSON delighting in a chance lunchtime run-in at The Met … The lone mask-wearers in question period: Housing Minister SEAN FRASER and NDP MP NIKI ASHTON.

Tory MP JAMIE SCHMALE surfing real estate listings during question period, flipping through MLS slideshows. (MPs, they’re just like us.)

Advice from LAUREEN TESKEY HARPER, reposted by IAN BRODIE: “My first rule in politics is never underestimate your opponent or think an election is over until the last vote.”

Movers and shakers: JENNA GHASSABEH will start a new position in the Prime Minister’s Office as press secretary on Monday … ALEX GRECO has a new role at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce as its “first” senior director of manufacturing and value chains … JONATHAN ENGLISH is joining Blackbird Strategies.

VALERIE GIDEON has been named deputy minister of Crown-Indigenous relations and northern affairs and also president of the Federal Economic Development Agency for Northern Ontario.

ARIANNE REZA has been appointed deputy minister of public services and procurement.

AROUND THE HILL


8:30 a.m. Statistics Canada will release its labor force survey for October.

11 a.m. Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND hosts a virtual meeting with her provincial and territorial counterparts to talk about Alberta’s threat to withdraw from the Canada Pension Plan. (Previewed in detail above.)

11 a.m. (10 a.m. CT) International Development Minister AHMED HUSSEN will be in St. Adolphe, Manitoba, to make a funding announcement on global food security.

TRIVIA


Thursday’s answer: LORD TWEEDSMUIR, also known as JOHN BUCHAN, was a prolific writer. His 1915 novel “The Thirty-Nine Steps” was adapted to film by ALFRED HITCHCOCK, which you all seemed to know!

Props to NICK CHAN, JANE BARNETT, JOANNA PLATER, STEPHEN HARRIS, KEN CARTY, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, KEVIN BOSCH, JOHN SELKIRK, MAUREEN MACGILLIVRAY, PEGGY MORAN, RICHARD REMILLARD, LAURA JARVIS, SARAH ANSON-CARTWRIGHT, BARRY J. MCLOUGHLIN, WAYNE FLEMING, GEORGE SCHOENHOFER, EMILY THORNE, SCOTT LOHNES, RALPH LEVENSTEIN, GERMAINE MALABRE, GORDON RANDALL, DOUG SWEET, DON NEWMAN, MATTHEW CONWAY, MATT POIRIER, BLAIR ARMITAGE, JOHN ECKER and CAROLYN MCCRIMMON.

Today’s question: Who described the challenge of enacting the Charter of Rights and Freedoms this way: “Like swimmers tossed into the deepest part of a lake, the justices had struggled to find sure ground, with no map to show them where it lay.”

Bonus question: How is this individual connected to this date in history?

Send your answer to [email protected]

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Emma Anderson and Luiza Ch. Savage.

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: [email protected]