Final UCP leadership debate focuses on same issues that ended Kenney's term: Alberta autonomy and COVID-19

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EDMONTON — On a stage in a theatre at the heart of downtown Edmonton, the seven men and women running for the leadership of Alberta’s United Conservatives pitched their visions of the future.

It was a discussion largely without sides — an at-times rollicking debate on politics and principle — but certainly both torn between and focused on the questions of autonomy that, along with COVID-19 public health measures, have dominated the UCP leadership race.

Yet, over the course of two hours, candidates were also put on the spot on a variety of issues, such as arts and culture, supporting the agriculture sector and the future of the oil and gas industry in the province.

While each fielded these questions — with Travis Toews, the former finance minister, making a quip about how a rancher, accountant and finance minister somehow ended up with the question about arts and culture — hanging over the debate were the big issues.

Autonomy and COVID-19 are the same issues that, just months ago, helped end Premier Jason Kenney’s time as leader of the province, so, unsurprisingly, they’re the exact issues that party faithful want to see their prospective party leaders discuss.

“We’re in a leadership race because we made these decisions … (the government) allowed themselves to be bullied and pushed around by the NDP. They didn’t stand up for the little guy,” said Danielle Smith, a former host of the now-defunct Wildrose Party.

While all candidates have views on these issues, it has been a particular boon for Smith, who has since done a stint as a talk radio host and newspaper columnist, and who has emerged as a widely perceived frontrunner in the race, and the person from whom the other six candidates have had to work to differentiate themselves.

Indeed, most notably, Rajan Sawhney, the former transportation minister and Rebecca Schulz, the former children’s services minister, both pressed Smith on the proposal. “Distracting constitutional turmoil is not a top priority for Albertans,” said Sawhney. And, Toews joined in, saying “we can’t wave a magic wand and get rid of federal law, that’s simply a fallacy.” Smith, for her part, hit back at Toews, saying his own proposal for tariffs to fight back against policies that punish Alberta, was perhaps also unconstitutional.

While there’s little doubt the dominant issue of the night was autonomy — indeed, Smith took every possible opportunity to pivot back to her Alberta Sovereignty Act — the candidates were pressed on issues from education, both primary and secondary, to rural policing and what to do with an expected $13.2 billion budget surplus.

Leela Aheer, a former Kenney cabinet minister, who was ejected after a photograph circulated of Kenney and his confidants drinking on the balcony of the so-called Sky Palace, talked about the necessity of protecting the vulnerable. A balanced budget, she argued, could never come on the “backs of children, their education or our most vulnerable.”

Others, too, feuded over the potential for a new, provincial police force that would replace the RCMP. It’s a proposal Smith and Toews back, with tacit support, maybe, from Jean. Sawhney, though, took Smith to task on it, saying many rural municipalities don’t support the idea. “You are not listening when you are enforcing the idea of an Alberta Provincial Police force,” Sawhney said.

“I think you’ve just said you don’t accept the wisdom of our UCP members,” Smith hit back.

For Albertans, who haven’t had a premier finish a term other than Rachel Notley, the NDP leader, for more than a decade, it’s been a winding road for the leadership race, which will wrap up in roughly six weeks, as candidates attempt to differentiate themselves.

“I may not be the flashiest person, I may not be the best speaker, but I can form great teams,” said Jean, pitching voters on his leadership abilities.

The race kicked off back in May when Kenney, having narrowly won a review of his leadership after a tumultuous couple years of pandemic governance, announced he would step aside. The new party leader — the new premier — will be announced Oct. 6 in Calgary, roughly six months before the next provincial election.

“It’s clear that so far, this race has seen Danielle Smith dominate the discussion about policy, about where the party should go,” said Matt Solberg, a partner with New West Public Affairs. “That doesn’t mean though, that in any real sense, she’s a frontrunner. Votes are still available to candidates.”

That said, it’s tough to say who actually might be in the lead.

There has been very little polling in recent weeks, although a Leger poll from late July showed Smith with 22 per cent support, compared to Jean, another former Wildrose leader, with 20 per cent and Toews with 15 per cent.

The premier’s bombastic strategy to fight back against Ottawa and perceived enemies of the oil and gas sector, and the deep unpopularity in parts of the province of COVID-19 public health measures, not only fuelled Kenney’s ouster, but are proving to be critical in the race to replace him.

“Kenney’s approach, his whole ‘fight back strategy’ now looks moderate in comparison to what’s being promised by the other candidates,” said Duane Bratt, a political science professor at Calgary’s Mount Royal University.

In particular, Solberg said, Smith has got out ahead of the pack, and has tapped into a still-simmering resentment over Alberta’s perceived shabby treatment by the Justin Trudeau Liberals in Ottawa.

“That seems to be the most unifying issue so far,” Solberg said.

Three candidates — Todd Loewen, Smith and Jean — attended a forum last week hosted by a pro-independence group. And last week, Chrystia Freeland, the deputy prime minister, was verbally harassed on a visit to Grande Prairie, a city in northwestern Alberta. This in fact earned a comment from Sawhney, who thanked those who condemned the attack. “We cannot let the politics of anger win,” she said.

Early in the campaign, Smith made a provocative promise: to introduce legislation, the Alberta Sovereignty Act, that purports to allow Alberta to simply ignore federal laws, court rulings and regulatory decisions the legislature believe runs contrary to Alberta’s interests.

It led to an immediate backlash: constitutional scholars condemned it as flagrantly unconstitutional, and fellow candidates have joined in, as they did again Tuesday night.

But the Alberta Sovereignty Act, combined with lingering anger over COVID-19 public-health measures, has proved a potent mix for Smith. Prior to entering the race, Smith was still weighed down by her decision in December 2014 to cross the floor from the Wildrose Party to the Progressive Conservatives under then-premier Jim Prentice; the party would lose to the New Democrats just months later, ending a four-decade stretch of conservative rule in the province.

This once-unforgivable sin seems all but forgotten now, as her particular brand of red-meat conservatism has found willing recipients among the UCP faithful.

“It appears that both candidates and members seem to be ready to bury that hatchet,” said Solberg.

The leadership race has also marked a remarkable period of growth for the party. At the time of Kenney’s resignation, the party numbered perhaps 60,000 members; it has roughly doubled, to 123,915 members.

Membership sales have closed, and the available votes are locked in, but there’s still ample room for competition in the race. While Smith appears to be the frontrunner, it’s not clear who second and third choice candidates might be, which could be critical, Bratt said, given the party’s ranked ballot system of selecting a leader.

When it comes to the hot issues, several candidates have been bullish on COVID-19 measures, in particular. Health care is also clearly an important issue, but candidates are going to need to figure out how to talk about the system itself — which laboured heavily under an influx of COVID patients — can be improved, rather than just railing against public-health measures, Solberg said.

That applies, too, to the economy — which gets very little attention on the candidates’ websites, even though it was the conversation that not only dominated Alberta politics for the past seven years, but was the primary issue that catapulted the UCP to power in the first place in 2019. And, said Solberg, what they’re going to do with the fiscal windfall the next premier will inherit; spend, save, cut spending? All are questions to hash out in advance of the next election.

“Candidates for leadership are going to find the best success finding solutions to the issues with the most complaints,” said Solberg.

And that is the issue looming over the party and its potential leader. During the Kenney years, Rachel Notley’s New Democrats polled ahead of the United Conservatives. But, after his resignation, the UCP began to creep back up in the polling. The next leader — and the party writ large — will need to think about how they can win the next election.

“A lot of the vote switchers who were more than willing to vote for the NDP, even if they came back to the UCP in 2019, we can’t take those votes for granted, and so far this leadership race, I think we kind of have,” said Solberg.

• Email: tdawson@postmedia.com | Twitter: tylerrdawson

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