Judicial recounts for Calgary ridings 'more symbolic than substantive': political scientist

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Two of the most tightly-contested ridings in the recent provincial election are still up in the air almost three weeks after election day, pending the results of a UCP-requested judicial recount that could bolster the party’s slim majority government.

The NDP won both Calgary-Acadia and Calgary-Glenmore on May 29, with contenders Diana Batten and Nagwan Al-Guneid ousting former UCP justice minister Tyler Shandro and incumbent Whitney Issik, respectively.

But the slim margins of victory — unofficial tallies had the NDP with seven votes on Shandro and 30 over Issik — triggered an automatic recount. That recount boosted those vote totals slightly, with the official tally showing the NDP winning by 25 votes in Calgary-Acadia and 42 ballots in Calgary-Glenmore.

The UCP formally requested judicial recounts Friday, hoping to add two seats to its narrow-majority, 49-seat government — 48 when discounting the UCP-ousted Jennifer Johnson, who’s poised to sit as an independent.

A win in both ridings would see the UCP reach the 50-seat threshold, said Mount Royal University political scientist Lori Williams, which she admitted would be “more symbolic than substantive” for the party. But she said an additional two seats would be a welcome buffer for the party, which doesn’t have much room for error as it stands.

“A handful of seats, whether because of floor crossings, resignations, ejections — whatever might happen — that could narrow the majority or even flip it,” she said. “This is a much less secure government. It gives dissident MLAs potentially more power if they’re threatening to switch parties or vote against the government and cause them to lose a vote of confidence. A slightly bigger majority would be more comfortable, but it’s still a pretty tight majority.”

Rare for judicial recounts to reverse results: political scientist

While the judicial recount will take a deeper look at rejected ballots and early votes, Williams said it’s rare for them to swing the result of an election.

“Generally speaking, recounts — even judicial recounts — don’t reverse the results,” she said. “But on some occasions, they do.”

She pointed to former Progressive Conservative MLA Thomas Lukaszuk, who, after appearing to lose his Edmonton-Castle Downs riding by a five-vote margin on election night in 2004 — a result tightened to three ballots by an automatic recount — appealed the loss three times. The Alberta Court of Appeal eventually ruled that Lukaszuk won the seat by three votes.

Unlike Lukaszuk’s case, the automatic recounts strengthened the NDP’s position, and she expects the same to happen in a judicial recount.

“The tendency seems to be, more often than not, that it confirms the original count — and usually by a larger margin, as we saw in the recounts so far,” said Williams.

Williams said the timeline for a judicial recount is not set in stone — though the Alberta Elections Act stipulates a recount date has to be set within 10 days of the recount being requested. Lukaszuk’s appeals dragged on for more than two months after the 2004 election.

“If the results are confirmed, and no further appeals take place, I would hope that we would know before the (fall) sitting,” she said.

NDP says basis for UCP’s recount requests ‘unfounded’

On Friday, the UCP said judicial recounts will ensure a thorough examination of the “yet-to-be-reviewed” advance voting ballots and certify that all eligible votes are accounted for. The NDP called the basis of the UCP’s recount requests “unfounded.”

The UCP filed the requests for judicial recounts on June 14.

Members of Alberta’s 31st Legislative Assembly are scheduled to be sworn in on Monday and Tuesday.

mrodriguez@postmedia.com

Twitter: @michaelrdrguez