Braid: Albertans blame Kenney for a bleak winter, but a 'spring honeymoon' is still possible

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In every popularity poll since last fall, Premier Jason Kenney has been near the bottom of Canada’s pile of provincial leaders.

The latest Angus Reid Institute poll shows he’s down to 39 per cent approval, one point below last month’s rating.

Kenney is ahead of only two premiers — Brian Pallister of Manitoba (36 per cent) and Nova Scotia’s Iain Rankin (31 per cent), who’s so new on the job that most people have no opinion of him at all.

Surely galling for Kenney is B.C. Premier John Horgan’s enduring popularity. He’s the national front-runner with 66 per cent, even though he’s juggling the $16-billion Site C dam disaster and a vaccine rollout not nearly as effective as Alberta’s.

Kenney registers low approval for a string of obvious reasons: the doctor’s dispute, the country’s weakest economy, lingering vaccination anxiety, $1.3 billion wasted on cancelled Keystone XL, and pandemic restrictions that are increasingly unpopular, especially with his own base.

One damn thing after another, in short. Albertans are plain worn out, and it all goes on Kenney’s shoulders.

But is he ripe for caucus rebellion, perhaps to be unseated in favour of a new UCP leader and premier?

There’s certainly UCP discontent with Kenney’s handling of pandemic measures and government spending.

Among conservatives, this kind of grumbling isn’t always trivial. Caucus and party upheaval played a big hand in forcing two PC premiers to resign — Ed Stelmach in 2011 and Alison Redford in 2014.

But in my view, that won’t happen to Kenney.

Past conservative insurrections came in the absence of a credible opposition party. For many years, PCs could rebel and backstab without the slightest fear of helping another party get elected.

That delusion collapsed with the NDP victory in 2015. The PCs had bickered themselves to death. It’s a lesson well remembered.

Rachel Notley, after being defeated by Kenney’s UCP in 2019, also refused to follow the usual form and resign as party leader.

She has preserved the NDP as an electable force. Her party generally runs even with or slightly ahead of the UCP in polls.

This NDP, ironically, is Kenney’s protection against a serious move against him from his own party.

The best argument he could throw back at UCP malcontents is — “do you want the NDP again? That’s what you’ll get if you fracture the party.”

Apart from all that, any thought of revolt could vanish quickly if Kenney’s approval starts to rise.

And it just might.

Spring is nearly upon us after the bleakest winter ever. Oil prices are higher than expected. As more people are vaccinated, the restrictions that so offend some UCP types will ease or disappear.

We could be heading into a euphoric summer and fall, as people fully vaccinated can finally mix with family and friends, shop without fear, go to movies and shows.

Just as Kenney suffers from public despondency, he could quickly benefit from a “spring honeymoon,” in the words of Mount Royal University political analyst David Taras.

The premier definitely needs to give his cabinet a fresh look with a major shuffle. The whole lot of them are indelibly tied to tough times.

And a Kenney revival would depend heavily on the economy, Taras says.

“If the Alberta economy is going well, there’s endless forgiveness for political leaders. And if it’s not, there’s no forgiveness at all.

“He will ultimately be judged on the goals he set for himself — jobs, pipelines and the economy.”

Alberta conservatives, for all their fractiousness, have long shown remarkable resilience.

In early 1993, the PCs of premier Ralph Klein were in deep trouble. Polling showed them with less than 20 per cent — true demolition territory.

But Klein axed lavish MLA pensions, a big issue of the day. The polls quickly flipped.

The PCs won their seventh straight election. They would go on to win five more.

Kenney and his UCP are down, that’s for sure. But predictions of the premier’s ouster and electoral defeat in 2023 are way ahead of their time.

Please check back in exactly two years.

Don Braid’s column appears regularly in the Herald

dbraid@postmedia.com

Twitter: @DonBraid