Former Democratic vice president Joe Biden looks set to take over the U.S presidency.
If he succeeds, one of the biggest shifts in the U.S./Canada relationship will involve climate change policies.
Donald Trump is a climate change denier who has done everything he can to obstruct progress on decarbonizing the atmosphere, not only in the U.S., but around the world. If he could, he would no doubt personally flip the switch that would ensure an endless upward spiral of greenhouse gas emissions no matter the consequences.
Biden has a vastly different take on climate change, one that is much more aligned with Canadian and global efforts and will likely spur the Trudeau government to reach even further.
This will likely enrage the provincial governments in Alberta and Saskatchewan, which have made it clear that protecting their fossil industries is their first priority.
A key change, should Biden win, that will no doubt be welcomed by the federal government will be the return of the U.S. to the 2015 United Nations Paris Agreement on Climate Change. The agreement committed all nations to reducing greenhouse gases, said Josha MacNab, national director of policy and strategy for the Pembina Institute during a phone interview.
The Biden platform also features a commitment to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, which the Trudeau Liberals have already committed to but have yet to lay out a plan that explains how we will get there.
MacNab points out that the enforcement mechanisms for reaching net-zero emissions that the U.S. adopts will no doubt influence Canadian policy and regulations.
“These two promises in the Biden platform will certainly align the U.S and Canada when it comes to climate change policy and will make things much easier for the feds,” added MacNab.
Biden has also promised aggressive methane limits on oil and gas operations, which might spur Canada to be even tougher on methane reduction than it has been so far, especially since the oil and gas industry usually aims to align itself for competitive reasons with industry standards in the U.S.
The Biden plan is also replete with pledges to include marginalized communities, displaced workers, and public services in areas impacted by the energy transition.
“It aims to rebuild the economy with marginalized people at the forefront. Trudeau has talked about this too but he hasn’t spelled out how that would happen here. So Biden’s policies may nudge him in that direction,” said MacNab.
That should make Albertans happy given how many are out of work due to low oil prices and decreased demand for the resource that powers the province’s economy.
But Premier Jason Kenney is no doubt hoping that Trump hangs on to the presidency because he much prefers his pipeline politics to Biden’s.
In May, Biden’s campaign proclaimed that if he is elected he will rescind the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline, which Trump has backed. Construction of the pipeline, which would ship 830,000 barrels a day of crude from Alberta to Nebraska, has been delayed for more than a decade by opposition from landowners, environmental groups, Indigenous communities, and President Obama.
Only six weeks earlier, Kenney had announced the Alberta government would invest $1.5 billion in Keystone XL and back loans worth $6 billion. The pipeline, most of which would be built in the U.S, is a project of Calgary-based TC Energy.
Kenney’s bet was a risky gamble even six months before the election. Now it’s starting to look really foolish.
But ironically the best card for him to play might be Trudeau. The Liberals have long supported Keystone XL and might be able to convince Biden to let the pipeline proceed.
That of course would mean Kenney would actually have to strike a productive relationship with Trudeau, something he has been loath to do so far.
But beyond the future of that pipeline, bigger changes will still be on the horizon if Biden becomes president and carries out his ambitious climate change and environmental promises.
They could impact the demand for oil from Canada’s most important customer. And make it even harder for Alberta and Saskatchewan to reject the federal government’s efforts to lower greenhouse gas emissions and protect the environment.
The global trends in this direction are already evident. A Biden win would put even more wind behind them.
