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Braid: UCP machine needs a rebuild after disastrous start to 2021

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The UCP government is in political crisis after the worst start to a calendar year of any Alberta regime in memory.

How do they get out of this spiral, or is it even possible?

First came the travel scandal in January, after a minister and MLAs winged off to sunny vacation spots only to be found out and demoted later.

There was epic public outrage at government politicians flouting the spirit of their own pandemic rules.

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Less obvious was friction within the UCP caucus.

Some government MLAs were furious at the travellers for hurting their reputation. The sun-bound felt there was no rule to stop them, and some even believed they had official approval.

The scandal hurt Premier Jason Kenney because his chief of staff, Jamie Huckabay, inexplicably went to the U.K. and returned via the U.S.

Pat Rehn, one of several UCP MLAs and staffers who vacationed outside of Canada over the Christmas holidays.
Pat Rehn, one of several UCP MLAs and staffers who vacationed outside of Canada over the Christmas holidays. Photo by Facebook

If the leader’s top hand didn’t have more sense, who does?

And then, along came new U.S. President Joe Biden. Inaugurated on Jan. 20, he didn’t wait 24 hours before cancelling the Keystone XL pipeline project.

This was bad news for Alberta’s economy — and for Kenney himself, because he had invested $1.5 billion of Albertans’ money in the project, as well as agreeing to another $6 billion in loan guarantees for TC Energy.

Kenney argued that Keystone would have failed a year earlier otherwise. That’s really no argument at all, since it still failed eventually at far greater public cost.

The feds merely expressed mild regret and moved on.

Ottawa’s behaviour was the real story that mattered to Alberta. But the province’s financial exposure once again made Kenney the story.

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And then, along came coal. The UCP faced an uprising on its own rural turf when people realized there could be new open-pit mines on the Eastern Slopes of the Rockies.

This disaster launched last May 15 when the province cancelled a 1976 policy prohibiting new mines on Category 2 foothills lands.

One theory is that the policy was caught up in the general dragnet cast across government by Grant Hunter, the associate minister for Red Tape Reduction.

A policy from 1976 — what tape could be redder? Out it went.

But the move might have been far more purposeful than that.

Journalist Andrew Nikiforuk has written, with evidence, that coal investors were aware of the cancellation before it was actually done. And the UCP’s subsequent enthusiasm for new mines could not have been more obvious.

A government that thought it could make such a profound switch without any consultation is seriously unhitched from its own base. Either the MLAs aren’t saying what ministers need to hear, or they don’t know themselves, or both.

Another possible problem for Kenney: Two of his MLAs, Angela Pitt, member for Airdrie-East, and Drew Barnes of Cypress-Medicine Hat, have joined the so-called Liberty Coalition Canada, whose members vow to fight “the unprecedented mass violations of Canadians’ Charter Rights” from COVID-19 measures.

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Other signatories include Maxime Bernier, Randy Hillier and Derek Sloan, all of whom have been ejected from or fled conservative parties, leaving by the far-right exit.

Whatever the state of the UCP caucus, the result of the coal imbroglio is reinstatement of the 1976 policy and a promise of consultation that should have happened long since.

The government has mostly succeeded in mobilizing fierce opposition that may ensure no new open-pit mines are ever built — a very good unintended consequence.

Grassy Mountain in Alberta’s eastern slopes near Crowsnest Pass.
Grassy Mountain in Alberta’s eastern slopes near Crowsnest Pass. Photo by THE CANADIAN PRESS/HO-Riversdale Resources

The UCP is now planning some kind of reboot in advance of the legislature session that begins Feb. 25. Last week there was a shuffle of the premier’s staff, as well as chiefs and press aides in minister’s offices.

For starters, the government could stop trying to do so much during a pandemic, when the result is that things are done badly.

They could also resist their chronic urge to attack Albertans who voice criticisms. There’s a powerful hunger in this society for civil, respectful debate.

Mount Royal University political analyst David Taras says the UCP could recover popularity “if they don’t go ahead with these draconian cuts, if they stop the war on the feds, if there was a real plan for COVID-19, if the government finally shows it’s on top of the issues.

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“But right now the short-term dynamics look very bad for the government.”

Ian Large, executive vice-president of pollster Leger, sees some hope.

“They need to reset, perhaps. They need to get through the next six months (and) clearly have the pandemic under control and people getting back to work.”

That would give the UCP a year and a half to rebuild support before the 2023 election, Large says. “And their machine is well enough constructed that they could recover.”

Possibly true — but only if that government is a much better model.

Don Braid’s column appears regularly in the Herald.

dbraid@postmedia.com

Twitter: @DonBraid

Facebook: Don Braid Politics

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