EDMONTON—The wildfires ripping through northern Alberta have generated not only a human crisis but a political predicament.
How do political parties campaign during a general election when the province is under a state of emergency?
This is especially true for UCP Leader Danielle Smith, who is now facing the challenge of being both the leader of her party’s campaign in a tight race and the leader of a government facing a crisis.
In crass political terms, this might be a pivotal moment for Smith.
The emergency gives her the opportunity to show herself as a competent leader. Opinion polls have so far indicated many Albertans simply don’t see the gaffe-prone Smith as a trustworthy or capable premier.
In fact, she has proven to be so controversial there is growing speculation that if Smith ekes out a small majority government she will be forced out as party leader by an internal party revolt. Alberta conservatives don’t just like a winner, they want a Winner with a capital W.
According to a litany of opinion polls, this nail-biter of an election campaign between the UCP and NDP could well end up with a small majority government.
“Win or lose on May 29, Smith is going to be gone,” says Duane Bratt, a prominent political scientist with Calgary’s Mount Royal University. “You’re hearing about people going door-knocking in Calgary saying, ‘Vote for the party, not the leader.’ ”
Smith is, to put it politely, a headline-generator. After winning a controversial and divisive leadership race last year, she quickly transitioned into a controversial and divisive premier. She got herself into trouble by, among other things, talking by phone to Artur Pawlowski in January about his criminal charges stemming from the Coutts border blockade in Alberta. Last week, Pawlowski was found guilty on two charges. Because of that phone call, Smith is under investigation by Alberta’s ethics commissioner.
A succession of opinion polls have pointed to a dead heat provincewide, but diving into the weeds reveals Albertans tend to have a higher opinion of NDP Leader Rachel Notley than of Smith.
A Leger report last week said Albertans see Notley being more honest than Smith (37 per cent to 23), more trustworthy (38 to 24), a better communicator (40 to 26) and “best represents Albertans” (37 to 31). Leger conducted a survey of 1,000 people April 28-May 1. As an online poll it has no reported margin of error.
So, it wouldn’t be surprising to see UCP candidates on the doorstep play up the UCP as a conservative movement while they play down Smith as leader.
Albertans saw a similar tactic in the 2004 election, when Ralph Klein was losing his lustre as province’s Progressive Conservative everyman premier. Facing a tough re-election fight, PC candidate Thomas Lukaszuk told voters on the doorstep that “I disagree with the premier” on several issues including Klein’s disparaging remarks about two disabled women.
Lukaszuk managed to win his Edmonton riding but only by a razor-thin margin, just three votes. While Klein won a majority of seats, his party lost 210,000 votes and 12 seats compared to the previous election. Conservative supporters didn’t cross the floor to another party in 2004, they simply stayed at home on election day. If something similar happened this time with disaffected conservatives, it could tilt the election in the NDP’s favour in “Battleground Calgary.”
Of course, the only thing better for the NDP than having conservative voters staying home would be for them to vote New Democrat for the first time. With that in mind, Notley made a plea last week to conservative-leaning voters who have misgivings about Smith.
“Maybe you’ve never voted for me, but this election is different,” said Notley who hoped to pull at conservative heartstrings by promising to freeze personal income taxes, produce balanced budgets, create jobs and run a stable government.
For her part, Smith has promised to cut personal income taxes, has already tabled a balanced budget, and is promising more job creation programs.
But the NDP’s plea also raised issues where Smith has proved lacking. “It’s about leadership and trust,” said Notley.
A major difference between Notley and Smith is that Notley heads a united party while Smith’s party is still recovering from last year’s divisive leadership race. If Notley squeaks out a small majority, the NDP will be dancing in the streets. If Smith squeaks out a narrow win, the UCP will be dancing on her political grave.
The knives are at the ready. One UCP candidate, who has been canvassing support in Calgary, told me Smith is the number one issue on the doorstep, and not in a good way.
He said there are already rumblings against Smith among candidates who find themselves on the razor’s edge. A source in the business community told me a cabinet minister expressed to him in so many words, “Don’t worry about Smith, she won’t last.”
Alberta conservatives have proven adept over the years forcing out unpopular leaders without the need for a formal leadership review. Ed Stelmach and Alison Reford were, in fact, pushed out after they had won leadership votes.
This time around Smith is facing pressure not only from moderate conservatives in Calgary but by fringe supporters in rural areas. It’s the same kind of two-pronged threat that undermined Kenney’s leadership, destabilized his government, and ultimately ended his career.
David Parker, leader of the right-wing organization Take Back Alberta, which claims credit for unseating Kenney and crowning Smith, is blunt about Smith’s future should she disappoint him after the election: “There would probably be a grassroots movement to remove Smith if she didn’t do what she said she’d do.”
To survive, Smith doesn’t just need to win, she needs to Win.
Alberta’s election drama is filled with so much speculation, plot twists and personalities that it’s impossible to predict the outcome. And now Mother Nature is playing a role, too.
