New book navigates Alberta's Kenney era, offers provincial election primer
"The old PCs were able to unify rural and urban, the UCP in 2019 was able to do that, but whoever wins the election in May – unless something shocking happens – you're going to see a large segment of the population outside of government."
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A new book detailing former Alberta premier Jason Kenney’s rule doubles as a guide to some of the biggest political issues facing the province ahead of a general election less than 100 days away.
Released last week, Blue Storm: the Rise and Fall of Jason Kenney, is billed as the first scholarly deep dive into how Kenney, considered one of the most powerful conservative leaders in the country after he led the UCP to a resounding election victory in 2019, ultimately fell from power.
While it had been written largely before Premier Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party leadership win in October, it was always meant to be released before the May 29 election, said Duane Bratt, a political scientist at Mount Royal University who edited the collection of essays with Richard Sutherland and the late David Taras.
“You cannot understand Smith’s leadership win, you cannot understand Smith’s governing style as premier, without understanding the forces that drove Jason Kenney out — and that’s what we document,” Bratt said.
The book gives an account of what the editors dub the “conservative restoration” in the province after four years of NDP government, but also outlines many of the pitfalls facing anyone leading the UCP. While the main planks of Smith’s campaign — relitigating COVID-19 grievances and fighting the province’s perennial battles with Ottawa — won her the leadership, Smith only pulled in 53.8 per cent of her party’s vote.
The book details that division among Alberta conservatives, along with other key issues, including Kenney’s approach to climate policy, education, and health-care workers. It even devotes a chapter to his famous blue Ram pickup truck.
Bratt noted that since her leadership win, Smith appears to have wiped out support for other right-wing political parties like the Western Independence Party, and her party has no choice but to offer a united front.
“The trade deadline is over,” said Bratt, who added that many conservative ruling parties have swapped out their leader prior to an election and seen success.
“This playbook has worked in the past, and they’re going to try it one more time,” said Bratt.
A conservative throwback
Bratt also argued that the UCP’s reign represented not just a return to conservatism, but a throwback to more socially conservative politics than Albertans had come to expect from the long-ruling Progressive Conservatives — one that he said has been out of step with public opinion on issues like the revamped K-12 school curriculum.
Whoever gets elected in May may still face massive challenges in trying to govern and please a very divided province, one split on many issues along urban and rural lines, Bratt said.
Recent polls suggest it could be a tight horserace between the governing UCP and the Opposition NDP, with the UCP expected to command a significant lead in rural ridings, the NDP to hold majority support in the Edmonton metropolitan region, and Calgary seen as the battleground that may decide the election.
“The old PCs were able to unify rural and urban, the UCP in 2019 was able to do that, but whoever wins the election in May — unless something shocking happens — you’re going to see a large segment of the population outside of government,” he said.
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