Farkas appears ahead in wide open Calgary mayoral race dominated by undecideds

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Jeromy Farkas is leading Calgary’s mayoral race but a huge swath of voters remain undecided with more than 10 weeks of campaigning left before Calgarians cast their ballots, according to a poll conducted for Postmedia.

The Leger poll found about 46 per cent of respondents don’t know who they would like to replace outgoing Mayor Naheed Nenshi, with women and young people making up the lion’s share of the undecided.

Farkas, a councillor for Ward 11, leads the race, with 20 per cent support among decided survey participants, followed by Ward 3 Coun. Jyoti Gondek, at 12 per cent, and Ward 6 Coun. Jeff Davison with five per cent.

The trio have edged to the front of a pack of 22 candidates — a testament to the name recognition the sitting councillors enjoy and the fact fewer Calgarians are paying attention at this stage of the race, said Ian Large of Leger, whose firm conducted the online survey for Postmedia between July 22 and 26.

“That Jeromy Farkas is leading and leading by so much is a surprise, I think,” said Large. “What’s not surprising is this huge undecided camp. That’s in part because the election is a long way off. It’s not really on people’s minds. There’s no momentum here, there’s no noise being built.”

Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt says most voters simply won’t pay attention to the municipal campaign until after Labour Day, but disagrees with the notion that Farkas’ early lead is surprising.

“Farkas is obviously at the top of the list because he has some real committed supporters and he’s been running for mayor since probably the day after he became a councillor in 2017,” said Bratt. “The question is, can he go much higher?”

According to the poll, Farkas’ support is concentrated among older voters, with twice as many people age 65 or older voicing support than 18- to 34-year-olds.

Some political watchers have suggested Calgary’s evolving demographics, as well as political factors, could contribute to a ceiling on Farkas’ support in this election.

With polls showing more progressive views flourishing in Alberta’s big cities, conservative candidates running for municipal office can wind up competing with each other for right-leaning voters. A similar dynamic occurred in the 2010 election, which saw conservatives Ric McIver and Barb Higgins divide voters on the right, clearing a path for an upstart Nenshi.

Such a dynamic could repeat this time around with a populist like Farkas battling an establishment conservative like Davison for supporters, Bratt suggested.

On the other end of the political spectrum, Leger’s latest data suggests former Nenshi supporters are leaning toward Gondek.

But experts caution the sheer number of undecided voters in the municipal race, coupled with the likelihood of a fall federal election, make casting predictions nearly impossible.

“What we’re seeing now is that Jeromy Farkas has a good campaign machine in place,” said MRU political scientist Lori Williams. “I think for some people it’s surprising that he’s ahead simply because of his record on council.

“(The) fact that he’s been censured by council, that he hasn’t been able to work with other members of council — I think that is going to limit his ability to appeal to new voters.”

October’s mayoral race has also drawn comparisons to previous contests, including the 2010 and 2001 municipal elections, when the absence of an incumbent mayor left the field much more open to candidates.

Tuesday’s poll also suggests Calgarians overwhelmingly intend to vote in the upcoming election, with 62 per cent of survey respondents claiming they will “definitely” vote in October and 18 per cent “very likely” to vote. Turnout in the 2017 election was more than 58 per cent.

Voters will also be faced this fall with a large and complex ballot, including referendum questions pertaining to equalization, daylight time and fluoridation that could influence turnout.

“I think this is very much a competition,” said Williams. “It’s a race that doesn’t have an incumbent mayor with a number of council races that don’t have an incumbent. When we don’t have incumbents, we tend to see higher voter turnout (and) more people engaged in the election than would be in other circumstances.

“There is a lot more potential for the knowns or the lesser-knowns to make a splash, to fight for a new vision.”

The poll collected the responses of 523 Calgarians of voting age who are part of Leger’s representative online opinion panel. Technically, a margin of error cannot be determined for an online panel. If the data had been collected through a random sample, the estimated margin of error would be plus or minus six per cent, 19 times out of 20.

mpotkins@postmedia.com
Twitter: @mpotkins