Albertans uneasy about UCP leadership frontrunners and Notley: poll

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More Albertans fear having a province run by the three front-runners in the UCP leadership race than welcome the prospect, states a new poll.

But NDP Leader Rachel Notley also fares poorly, with 52 per cent of respondents in the online Angus Reid Institute poll conducted from Sept. 19 to 22 saying another term with her as Alberta premier would be bad or terrible.

And her party, according to the poll, trails the UCP by six points — 47 per cent to 41 per cent — in Albertans’ voter intent.

The survey of 598 adult Albertans suggests perceived UCP leadership contest front-runner Danielle Smith is seen least favourably among the three top candidates, with 54 per cent of those polled saying she’d be terrible or bad for the province as premier.

Travis Toews, who has the backing of more of the party’s MLAs than any other contestant, has a negative perception of 37 per cent, while Brian Jean rates 46 per cent.

By contrast, positive perceptions of both Smith and Toews were at 32 per cent each, and former Wildrose Party leader Jean earned 37 per cent.

Enthusiasm for the new Conservative leader at the federal level is lacking among UCP voters for provincial leadership hopefuls, said Angus Reid president Shachi Kurl.

“For better or for worse, Conservatives love leader Pierre Poilievre, but we’re not seeing the same for the front-runners in this race,” she said.

“They’ve chosen their (partisan) corners, but it doesn’t mean their options make them inspired or pumped up for the future.”

Those results also highlight the disconnect between Albertans as a whole with the UCP base most involved in choosing their party’s next leader, she said.

Smith’s poor showing among Albertans isn’t a surprise given her unpopular stances on a variety of issues, including her campaign’s centrepiece, the Sovereignty Act, which is meant to allow the province to ignore federal laws not in its interest, said Mount Royal University political scientist Lori Williams.

“She said she thinks smoking cures disease, she’s promoted using hotels for some hospital patients, she’s supported quack cures like hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19 and then there’s the Sovereignty Act,” said Williams, adding she was referring to Smith’s comments in newspaper columns, on radio and on the campaign trail.

“Those kinds of positions are not going to be popular with most Albertans when we head towards an election (next year).”

The poll shows 34 per cent of respondents support the Sovereignty Act, while 54 per cent oppose it.

Williams also said Smith’s months-long association with a phone bank contractor she fired this week after videos linking them with racist banter won’t sit well with Albertans.

“If Danielle Smith wins, she’ll get serious questions on whether she’s serious about dealing with racism,” said Williams.

Earlier this month, most of the UCP candidates appeared together in Calgary to voice concern that a Smith premiership would cost their party next spring’s provincial election, citing the Sovereignty Act as the main reason.

On Friday, leadership hopeful Rajan Sawhney said the polling results are no surprise, adding the wider electability of the front-runners and the prevailing debates are issues that have troubled her from the start of the campaign.

“We’ve been focused too much on the Sovereignty Act and provincial policing and not what really matters to Albertans,” she said.

“These polls are indicative of a very concerning trend — when we govern, we govern for all Albertans.”

Even so, the poll suggests the NDP, which ruled Alberta from 2015 to 2019 during an economic downturn driven largely by slumping energy prices, are viewed dimly and trail a UCP given new life by the departure of unpopular Jason Kenney.

Among respondents, 45 per cent said an NDP government would be terrible, seven per cent believe it would be bad, compared to 42 per cent who say it’d be good or great for the province.

“The potential of new blood at the helm of the UCP has sparked a rise in the political fortunes of the party,” states Angus Reid.

“(The 47 per cent) marks the highest level of support for the party since before the pandemic.”

That result is consistent with other recent polling showing a UCP lead.

Kurl said the rough ride given Notley reflects the highly polarized nature of Alberta politics.

“You see these parallels in federal politics,” she said, adding brightening economic news also plays a role.

“Albertans getting more of a spring in their step is giving them pause about Ms. Notley.”

The pollster said the jump in the UCP’s popularity comes at the expense of the Wildrose Independence Party, whose support has fallen to five per cent from 15 per cent over the past year.

Even so, many observers, including some political scientists, say the UCP fortunes could dip once they choose a leader, though that would depend on who wins that race on Oct. 6.

Two other recent polls suggest the UCP leadership battle is alienating Albertans enough to take a toll in next spring’s election.

“This UCP leadership race has greatly damaged the party among the electorate (especially in Calgary) while energizing the base,” Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt tweeted while citing those two polls.

Cost of living and health care were the top concerns among Albertans, according to the survey.

As for the UCP leadership race, MRU’s Williams said it remains an open question of who will prevail, given there’s no guarantee anyone will clinch it on the first ballot.

“It’s still something that’s very hard to call,” she said.

The probability of a randomized survey of this size would carry a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points 19 times out of 20, says Angus Reid.

BKaufmann@postmedia.com

Twitter: @BillKaufmannjrn