Monday's Calgary Heritage byelection could be test of right-wing parties' strength: political scientist

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A looming federal byelection in a Conservative stronghold in south Calgary could be most relevant as a brawl between parties on the political right, says a political scientist.

Voters in Calgary Heritage head to the polls Monday to replace a Conservative Party of Canada MP who stepped down last January in the riding once held by former prime minister Stephen Harper.

Bob Benzen announced last October that he wouldn’t run again, citing a wish not to become “a career politician,” prompting Prime Minister Justin Trudeau last month to call a byelection for the riding.

The Conservatives won the riding handily in the Sept. 20, 2021, federal election, capturing 57.7 per cent of the vote, with the NDP finishing a distant second with 17.4 per cent.

The Liberals garnered 16.7 per cent of the vote.

The People’s Party of Canada, which some thought could siphon strength from the Conservatives, proved a limited factor in that election with five per cent of ballots cast.

But with at least four of the eight candidates contesting the byelection falling on the right of the political spectrum, the byelection is likely to prove more of a referendum on the strength of the various conservative parties heading toward the 2025 general election, said Mount Royal University political scientist Lori Williams.

“We’ve got a lot of different conservative candidates and if (changes in momentum) happen, it might be on the conservative side,” said Williams.

“Are they growing or staying the same? Those parties will be looking at the margins . . . it could have some indications for the upcoming (2025) federal election.”

After a recent succession of leadership races and a provincial election, as well as the fact the byelection is happening in the middle of summer, many voters will likely tune out — but the federal Conservatives under Leader Pierre Poilievre should still win easily, she said.

While the CPC’s total stranglehold on Alberta weakened by 14 per cent in 2021, with the Liberals claiming two seats in the province and the NDP one, ripping Calgary Heritage from their grasp is considered a long shot.

Four federal byelections last month failed to appreciably alter the political equation, with the Conservatives and Liberals each retaining two seats.

In three of those races, the Liberals polled better than their previous results but the party shouldn’t expect to replicate that in Calgary Heritage, said Williams.

Conservative candidate has ties to Stephen Harper

Carrying the Conservative Party banner in Harper’s former riding is a man who works closely with the former PM — Calgary native Shuvaloy Majumdar.

A longtime party staffer and foreign policy adviser, Majumdar is a director of Harper’s consulting firm and counts himself a friend of Poilievre.

His campaign didn’t respond to a request for an interview.

But his LinkedIn page says he’s “a nationally recognized and respected thought leader in Canadian foreign policy and national security — advocating for Canadian energy, confronting foreign authoritarians interfering in the lives of Canadians, and promoting a principled vision for Calgary and our country in a disrupted world.”

NDP candidate looks to build party’s presence in Calgary

NDP candidate Gurmit Bhachu called Majumdar “a Harper clone” but doesn’t think his ties to the ex-PM will have an effect on the race.

Bhachu said he doesn’t expect to prevail but notes the NDP has nearly doubled its share of the vote in the riding over the past two elections.

“My role is to keep chipping away — there are Conservatives moving to the NDP, which is awesome,” said Bhachu, a Grade 4 teacher with the Calgary Board of Education.

He said concerns over affordability and health care play well in the NDP’s favour, given the party’s efforts in pushing the Trudeau government toward wider pharmaceutical and dental coverage.

“Those things would save Canadians a lot of money,” said Bhachu, who ran for the NDP in 2019 and 2021 in nearby Calgary Midnapore.

Liberal candidate ‘putting out a really positive message’

A Conservative victory isn’t a foregone conclusion, said Liberal hopeful Elliot Weinstein.

“We’ve been working really hard, we’ve been putting out a really positive message that’s resonating at the doors,” he said.

He wouldn’t deny the unpopularity in Calgary of Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, but emphasized he’s running on his own name and background.

“It’s my name on the ballot — I put myself forward as a small-business owner and family person,” said Weinstein.

His campaign, he said, is trying to appeal to other progressive voters who might normally lean toward the NDP with a pitch that, if elected, he’ll “be stepping right into government,” adding he’s serious about addressing environmental issues.

And Weinstein said he’s heard some rumblings of dissatisfaction with Poilievre among some Conservatives in Calgary Heritage.

People’s Party of Canada candidate looks to ‘hold people accountable’

People’s Party of Canada candidate Kelly Lorencz said he agrees with Williams’ prediction the byelection could have relevance as a showdown among conservatives.

“But we need to find ways to work together and address the concerns Canadians have,” said Lorencz, a military veteran and ex-corrections officer who’s the party’s “western lieutenant.”

He said his campaign in the riding “has been really, really well-received, which has surprised me . . . we need another set of eyes in Ottawa, we’ve got to have people who speak their mind and hold people accountable.”

Inflation and cost-of-living challenges have been at the forefront of constituents’ concerns, he said, as have parental rights.

“Parents want to have control over their children’s lives in health, education, health care and religion, and keep the government out of that,” said Lorencz, who’s said he’ll hold accountable the CPC just as he would the Liberals.

Party leader Maxime Bernier was scheduled to attend a noontime PPC barbecue in the riding on Saturday to rally his troops ahead of Monday’s byelection.

Also contesting the byelection is the Green Party of Canada’s Ravenmoon Crocker, Larry Heather of the Christian Heritage Party, the Maverick Party’s Dan Irving and unaffiliated candidate Donovan Eckstrom.

BKaufmann@postmedia.com

Twitter: @BillKaufmannjrn