Calgary seats to watch in Alberta’s election night

Alberta’s election day has finally arrived, and many are saying the race is still too close to call.

Calgary is thought to be highly influential in who becomes the province’s next premier, often referred to throughout the campaign as the “battleground” for Monday’s vote.

There are several exciting races that could go either way.

Many people will look to Calgary-Elbow, a riding that has sat empty since the resignation of Doug Schweitzer in August.

Mount Royal University political scientist Lori Williams says people there have been waiting months for representation.

“Calgary-Elbow was Doug Schweitzer; everyone will recall that Danielle Smith declined to hold a by-election there in order to win a seat in the legislature so it’s completely vacant and has been longer than it should have been,” she said.

“We’ve got a fairly strong UCP and NDP candidate in that riding so it’s a toss-up between the two of them.”

Some high-profile UCP ministers are in close races, including Jason Copping in Calgary-Varsity, Demetrios Nicolaides in Calgary-Bow, and Tyler Shandro in Calgary-Acadia.

“He’s up against a nurse in that riding so I think that he’s going to find that a bit of a difficult race,” Williams said.

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Calgary-Bow could also be an interesting one.

“That’s where the post-secondary education minister, advanced education and energy minister, Demetrios Nicolaides [is],” explained Williams. “He’s up against Druh Farrell, they’re a former city councilor.”

Sonya Savage’s old riding of Calgary-North-West will also be one to watch, according to Williams.

Former minister Rajan Sawhney is running there after saying she didn’t intend to run again in her then-riding of Calgary-North-East

“When Sonya Savage decided not to run again, the party decided to move Rajan Sawhney to that seat,” Williams explained.

There are also some ridings outside of the city that go could either way.

“Banff-Kananaskis, I think, is also going to be in play,” Williams said.

That riding is currently held by Miranda Rosin under the UCP but went orange in the 2015 vote.

Williams says while both parties need to do well in Calgary, it’s especially crucial for the NDP as the UCP has stronger support in rural areas outside Calgary and Edmonton.

In an Abacus Data poll released Sunday, on election eve, voter intention showed a 49-48, UCP, NDP split, rounded out by a one per cent Alberta Party vote and two per cent for other contenders.

Of eligible voters, 27 per cent of respondents said they had already cast their ballot in advance polls. Of those, 50 per cent said they voted blue and 47 per cent said they voted orange.

A May 25 ThinkHQ poll has the NDP with a “modest” lead over the UCP with a predicted 49 per cent of the decided vote over the UCP’s 43 percent.

That same data indicates that one in 10 Calgary voters remained undecided.

Advance voting closed Saturday, tallying more than 758,000 ballots, which broke the record set in the 2019 vote.