Braid: Everything's at stake for Premier Smith in the Brooks-Medicine Hat byelection

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Premier Danielle Smith has to win the byelection in Brooks-Medicine Hat on Tuesday or risk losing the UCP leadership and premiership.

Yes, it’s that big a deal.

Nobody should bet even a loonie on her losing, of course, but until the votes are counted you never quite know what the voters are up to.

On Monday, there were some signs to make Smith and her campaigners uneasy.

The weather could hamper Tuesday’s turnout just when interest already seems very low.

Only 4,231 people voted at advance polls, 12.4 per cent of the eligible voters.

In the 2019 general election, 30 per cent of Brooks-Medicine Hat voters turned out early. The UCP won by a huge majority in the conservative rush to oust the NDP government.

Does the low early turnout suggest a lack of enthusiasm for Smith? Fading concern among conservatives about an NDP victory? An assumption that she’s bound to win so why bother to vote early, or at all?

Any of those factors, or all together, could bring a weaker victory than Smith needs.

As political scientist Lori Williams points out, she has to have a decisive victory. That’s crucial to calm widespread fears in her own party that she’s on the wrong track.

An outright loss would force her to quit or take the extraordinary step of calling another quick byelection. (Hey, how about Calgary-Elbow the second time around?)

She’d be in a pickle much like former PC premier Don Getty faced after the 1989 election. The PCs won handily but Getty lost his Edmonton seat.

It seemed that he might resign, but after a delay he won a byelection in Stettler.

The PCs gave him a second chance because the party had just won a majority. Facing an election next spring, Smith has no such comfort zone.

Smith faces Alberta Party Leader Barry Morishita, the former Brooks mayor who is well-known in his community. NDP candidate Gwendoline Dirk had a long career as a teacher in Medicine Hat.

They both have local bases. Smith is a High River resident with no particular connection to the area.

The other candidates are Bob Blayone of the Independence Party of Alberta and Jeevan Mangat of the Wildrose Independence Party.

Dirk might hope for a repeat of Bob Wanner’s 2015 NDP victory in the riding of Medicine Hat.

But that happened because of a split between the PC and Wildrose vote. Those days are long gone, and the old Medicine Hat riding itself has vanished.

There’s no longer a single constituency focused on the city, but two — Brooks-Medicine Hat and Cypress-Medicine Hat.

This both splits the city vote and dilutes it into much larger rural areas, which can only help the UCP. (Don’t blame them, though. The change was made in 2017 when the NDP was in government.)

This byelection itself is an extremely rare event. There have been only two parallel cases in Alberta since 1935.

It’s an election to find a legislature seat for a unelected person who has won the leadership of the government party.

One of the least attractive features of our system is that such a politician can be sworn in as premier, with full powers and authority.

In modern times, there’s only been one directly parallel case.

Jim Prentice was chosen PC leader and premier after Alison Redford resigned. He then won Calgary-Foothills in 2014, but went on to lose the election after Smith herself moved most of the Wildrose caucus to his PC fold.

Before that we have to go all the way back to 1935 to find a similar example.

The Social Credit movement shocked itself by winning a general election with no formal leader. William Aberhart was selected and won a byelection in Okotoks-High River.

A shock is unlikely on Tuesday, but Smith has some cause to be nervous.

Don Braid’s column appears regularly in the Herald

Twitter: @DonBraid