NDP narrowly leads UCP provincewide but trails in vital Calgary: Leger poll
Less than four months out of the provincial election, the NDP commands 47 per cent of decided voters versus 43 per cent for the UCP, according to a new Leger poll
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The Alberta NDP holds a narrow lead over the governing UCP provincewide but is trailing in what’s widely thought to be the decisive electoral battleground of Calgary, a new poll suggests.
About 3-1/2 months ahead of a provincial election, Rachel Notley’s NDP commands 47 per cent of decided voters versus 43 per cent for Premier Danielle Smith’s UCP, according to an online Leger poll conducted Feb. 10-12.
Those results are in the ballpark of other recent polls that show a tight contest between the two parties, with the Leger survey of 1,002 people indicating support for the NDP has grown by six percentage points since September, while the backing for the UCP has stayed the same.
But the poll might be a cause for some concern for the Opposition NDP, which trails its governing rivals by a count of 47 to 42 per cent in the Calgary metropolitan region, which includes ridings just outside the city limits. The region is seen by many as crucial to an electoral win, said Ian Large, Leger executive vice-president for Alberta.
In October, a Leger poll showed the NDP leading in Calgary by three points.
“After a few months on the job (for Smith), with the economy looking good, oil and gas prices are high, that traditional base in Calgary is coming back to the UCP,” he said.
“Are they fully on board, coming back in droves? No . . . but if I were the NDP, I would be concerned I’m losing an edge I had four, six months ago.”
The apparent UCP surge in Calgary is extremely important, said Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt.
“It shows Smith is recovering in the city, and Calgary is going to decide the election,” said Bratt.
“Is it (scoring points on) the affordability issue, fighting Trudeau or fear of Notley? I don’t know.”
But that margin is a far cry from the advantage the NDP enjoys in the Edmonton metropolitan region, where it controls 61 per cent of decided voters to the UCP’s 32 per cent, according to the poll.
Bratt said such a wide lead could mean the NDP could pick up seats outside Edmonton city limits, which could balance off some of the UCP wins in Calgary.
While the writ-dropping for the May 29 vote is still more than two months away, both main political parties have been freely spending their considerable war chests on election advertising.
They’ve also been keying heavily on Calgary, with Notley spending time in ridings the party sees as winnable.
Sizable negative ratings on how the UCP is performing on the two most crucial issues provides hope for the NDP as the election nears, said Large.
On how the government is handling health care as well as cost-of-living/affordability, 51 per cent of respondents rated them as poor, with only 19 and 16 per cent respectively describing the performance as good or excellent.
And 53 per cent of those polled said the province was headed in the wrong direction.
On other issues, such as the pandemic, education and diversifying the economy, the negative ratings aren’t as great but still exceed perceptions of excellence.
“They (NDP) have an opportunity, there are political winds,” said Large.
Among respondents, 23 per cent said they were undecided.
But it appears controversial comments made by Smith on topics such as intervening with Crown prosecutors and First Nations aren’t torpedoing the UCP’s fortunes among an electorate more interested in economic issues, he said.
“I don’t know if those (controversies) matter that much to Albertans,” said Large.
Bratt agreed, saying the constant stream of controversies could tend to dilute their effect.
“It’s almost like there’s so many of them, it’s just noise,” he said.
A ThinkHQ poll released in late January suggested the UCP had a 48 to 45 per cent lead over the NDP, with the governing party gaining four per cent in the previous month while their rivals dipped by one.
Leger says that as a non-random internet survey, a margin of error is not reported. But if the data were collected through a random sample, the margin of error would range from 3.1 to 5.5 per cent 19 times out of 20, depending on the provincial region, it says.
Twitter: @BillKaufmannjrn
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