If Trudeau calls early election, Liberals shouldn’t expect easy majority, experts say

OTTAWA (NEWS 1130) – A federal election call could come as early as this weekend, with speculation growing over the prime minister triggering a vote while his Liberal party is riding high in the polls. But experts say the governing party shouldn’t be over-confident about their chances.

Campaigns matter, says Keith Brownsey, a political scientist at Mount Royal University. He adds when it comes to elections, you can’t count your ballots before they are cast. He says in modern Canadian federal elections, the outcome of a vote rarely mirrors the party standings at the start of a campaign.

“Political parties can come from behind,” he said. “Parties in the lead, their campaigns can collapse for one reason or another.”

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He points out Prime Minister Justin Trudeau came to power with a stunning majority in 2015 after sitting in third place in the polls at the start of the vote. Trudeau was denied a second majority in 2019 due to scandals on the campaign trail, such as photos of him in blackface.

“If they think they’re just going to cruise into another majority government, I think they’re mistaken,” Brownsey said.

Daniel Beland, a political scientist at McGill University, says a potential fourth wave of COVID-19 could also play a big factor.

“There is quite a bit of instability. That could create some surprises during the campaign,” Beland.

Both Beland and Brownsey add there is hope for the opposition, even though they are trailing in the polls.

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