SACPA: How can the UCP regain the trust of Albertans?

(Southern Alberta Council on Public Affairs – YouTube)

He remarked that since being elected on April 16, 2019, Alberta’s UCP government, led by Jason Kenney, has seen a steady decline in support from voters in the province.

Bratt presented statistics that show if an election were to have been held last month, the UCP would not have had as much support as it did back in 2019.

(Screenshot from Duane Bratt’s presentation)

He also noted a drop in popularity for Premier Jason Kenney, citing a lack of success in Kenney’s three main campaign platforms as a factor in that dip.

Those key campaign messages were “jobs, economy, pipelines”.

Bratt stated that, “one of the problems that Kenney’s got is he’s [zero] for three right now.”

“The jobs situation is worse now than when he was elected, the economic situation is worse than when he was elected, and no new pipelines have come forward.”

“In fact, none [pipelines] are expected by 2023, with the exception of the Trans Mountain pipeline, which was bought and supported by the Trudeau government under great pressure of Rachel Notley, so he [Kenney] could be walking into an election in 2023 where the only pipeline that was built, was built by the preceding government.”

Although the COVID-19 pandemic has rocked the provincial economy, Bratt listed some ‘non-COVID factors’ in the decline of the UCP and Kenney’s popularity:

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“One of the campaign promises that Kenney also made was what he called the ‘Fight Back Strategy’ on behalf of Alberta’s oil and gas industry,” Bratt said.

“They were going to do a variety of things – they were going to fight Justin Trudeau, they were going to fight Premier [John] Horgan in B.C., they were going to create a war room to defend Alberta’s oil and gas sector, they were going to have an inquiry, led by Steven Allan to look at foreign funding of environmental groups.”

Bratt commented that on every one of those strategies, the UCP government doesn’t “have a win, and may have made the situation worse”.

He said that, “the war room began with plagiarizing logos, trying to bully small town papers like in Medicine Hat. They attacked the New York Times, they’ve been going after international insurance companies, the Netflix film ‘Bigfoot’ has been on their target.”

“The Allan inquiry is over-budget, it is delayed, they are not meeting with the environmental groups that they are suggesting are foreign funding. They were supposed to release it by the end of May, but I think they’re going to miss that deadline as well.”

COVID-19

Bratt also touched on the UCP’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.

He believes the province managed the first wave of the pandemic “quite well”, as Alberta had some of the lowest case loads and hospitalization rates in Canada during that time last year.

However, things took a turn for the worse earlier this year, with Alberta at one point having the most cases per capita in the whole country – the province has since been surpassed by Manitoba.

Bratt touched on Premier Kenney’s belief that case numbers were so bad just weeks ago due to a “compliance problem” in the province. He cited government “mis-messaging” as a factor in that compliance issue.

“Overall, I think the government has treated COVID seriously, and its messaging has been serious, but every once in a while, Jason Kenney or their public relations team will kind of minimize it.”

Bratt also listed members of UCP disregarding restrictions, with many having traveled over the holidays and an early lack of enforcement as other factors of a mishandling of the pandemic.

READ MORE: Frustration grows as list of UCP MLAs who travelled over holidays grows

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He noted that these issues, particularly enforcement, have been generally corrected over the past two weeks.

Bratt said Kenney and the UCP need to continue pressing Albertans to get vaccinated, in order for restrictions to gradually be lifted sooner than later.

He added that the distrust and revolt of Kenney’s caucus is something that needs to be kept in check as well.

READ MORE: 15 UCP MLAs voice opposition to new COVID restrictions

READ MORE: MLAs Drew Barnes and Todd Loewen out of UCP Caucus

“The vaccination rollout is going to be critical for Jason Kenney. This is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the UCP to prevail, so we need the vaccinations to roll out, but he also has to keep the UCP together and that’s why the caucus revolt was so important.”

Bratt remarked that there’s also the long-lasting legacy of COVID that cannot be forgotten.

“Are people going to say, ‘well the economy is working again [and] the restrictions are gone’? Are we not going to remember the [over 2,100] people who died [in Alberta]? Are we not going to remember not being able to go to our parents’ or grandparents’ funeral?”

“I think what has transpired over the last 15 months is so important that people are going to keep that in mind, so things are bleak for the UCP now. There is a pathway for victory, but it is narrow for them right now.”

by Justin Goulet

SACPA: How can the UCP regain the trust of Albertans?

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