A majority of Calgarians say they feel less safe in their city than they did three years ago, but experts say the city isn’t less safe than it was in 2019.
A ThinkHQ Public Affairs study found that 53 per cent of 1,172 Calgarians surveyed said they feel less safe in the city. Around 15 per cent of those surveyed said it is “much less safe”. Only four per cent of participants said they felt safer while 42 per cent said they feel about the same, the survey concluded.
The study also said 48 per cent of Calgarians surveyed felt that crime is high in the city today and 12 per cent said crime is “very high”. Only 37 per cent felt that crime is at a moderate level and 12 per cent said crime is relatively low.
A majority of Calgarians (around 72 per cent) surveyed said crime in the city has increased over the past three years, while 22 per cent of those interviewed said crime is much higher than it used to be. Around 18 per cent of participants feel things are about the same as three years ago.
Only 5 per cent said crime has decreased in the city.
In a statement to Global News, a CPS spokesperson said the survey is not a surprise.
“The results of the survey, while disappointing, are not a surprise as we have seen an uptick in crimes that impact our community. While many crimes decreased during the pandemic, we have seen a steady increase since the end of public health mandates and a return to everyday activities,” the statement read.
“We have listened to Calgarians and are focused on crime prevention, investigations and engagement with our community. To address many of the concerns we see echoed in these results, we have submitted a budget request for 2023-2026 that ensures we are investing in areas that provide stability in a period of transformation.”
But while the crime numbers compared to 2021 and 2020, the city isn’t less safe than it was in 2019. In fact, the violent crime rate was actually slightly higher in 2019.
Calgary Police Service data shows there were 3381 non-domestic violent crime cases (homicide, sex offences, robberies, etc.) in Q2 2022 compared to 3371 in Q2 2019. That’s an estimated 247.38 cases per 100,000 people in 2022 compared to 252 cases per 100,000 people in 2019.
The 2022 per capita data was calculated based on the average population growth rate of 2.43 per cent since 2021. The average growth rate is based on population data from 2011. At the time of writing, the 2022 population data have not been released by the government of Alberta.
The latest CPS monthly report also showed that citywide disorder activity in September 2022 is comparable to the five-year average with 20 fewer calls. However, year-to-date citywide disorder activity is slightly lower than the five-year average (1678 fewer calls were made).
Kelly Sundberg, an associate professor and criminologist at Mount Royal University, said there’s a more visible presence of homelessness, disorder and addiction which may cause residents to think the community has more crime.
Sundberg also said social media and the economy play a role in Calgarian’s perception of crime. The COVID-19 pandemic has shifted the way people consume information, and people are now more susceptible to misinformation.
“Calgarians will see incidents happening in Atlanta hit the news and that will influence our perception of crime and safety even though we are thousands of kilometres apart. There’s the influence of social media and cable media,” Sundberg said.
“With inflation, an unstable economy and the war in Ukraine, our world is tumultuous right now. This is resulting in people feeling all sort of things and worse off… People already have a negative feeling about other things in our society and that will transfer to crime perception.”
Sundberg said when members of the public perceive crime as worse than it is policymakers will make bad decisions based on that.
“The perception of crime and the reality of crime will cause more challenging issues,” the criminologist said.
“One of the key aspects of changing public perception is transfer, such as more information from the police about what’s happening in the city. Politicians politicizing and amplifying the issue is not helping.”
Ward 10 Coun. Andre Chabot said the city is looking to increase the police funding in the next four-year budget, saying the CPS is one of the most underfunded police services compared to other municipalities in Canada.
Chabot said the city is trying to keep taxes low while enhancing police services.
“It’s not surprising to me. I hear it from my constituents every day. They don’t feel as safe when they get on the transit system and when they’re out and about,” Ward 10 Coun. Andre Chabot told Global News.
“By partnering with different agencies, we’re going to try to nip an incident in the bud and prevent it from becoming a (violent) crime.”
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