The debate's over. What will Alberta's political leaders do next?
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As voters mull over Thursday night’s leaders debate, they can expect parties to start massaging their messages as we head into the final 10 days of the election campaign.
One man who’s been there, done that, is Vitor Marciano, who was a deputy campaign manager for the now-defunct Wildrose Party in the 2015 election.
Unlike that election, he doesn’t think Thursday’s debate will prove a pivotal moment in the campaign.
Now that it’s over, he said, it’s about doing a quick assessment of issues that have risen to the fore or dropped off the table as voters settle on their impressions of the leaders.
“It usually takes two or three days for the general public to decide how they feel about a debate,” he said Friday.
“People have to think about it, talk about it with their friends, families and co-workers. They point out different points to each other, they crystallize on an issue or a moment or a perception of the leaders.”
From there, he said, parties will likely drive towards the question they want voters take with them to the ballot box on April 16.
“When you go into the last two weeks of the campaign you shorten the playbook, so there are generally fewer things you’re talking about,” he said.
“I expect to see both campaigns work really hard — starting today — to sharpen their presentation on what the election is all about.”
For a majority government, a party needs to win 44 of 87 seats after the votes are counted. The NDP, UCP and Alberta Party are all running a full slate of candidates, while the Liberals have a team of 51.
Postmedia spoke with Mount Royal University political scientists Lori Williams and Duane Bratt on what Albertans should expect in the last two weeks of the campaign. Here’s what they predicted each leader will do next.
Jason Kenney: Stay the course. Stay on message.
The UCP is ahead in the polls, so the election is Kenney’s to lose at this point.
He accomplished what he needed to in Thursday’s debate, said Bratt. “He avoided losing, and that is the most important thing for a front-runner.”
Kenney needs to continue pushing his message on jobs and the economy, but he’s likely hoping there are no more “bozo eruptions,” Bratt said. The UCP has been dealing with a series of candidate controversies, most recently when Drayton Valley-Devon candidate Mark Smith was slammed for homophobic remarks he made in 2013.
Williams said Kenney is “studiously” avoiding some issues. “He’s going to play it safe … he’s just going to try not to blow it.”
Rachel Notley: Focus on why the NDP is the best choice.
Notley did well in the debate by touting her record and attacking Kenney’s policies, but she’s got ground to make up, said Williams.
She needs to reinforce that she understands Albertans are struggling in the economy, and convince voters that the fiscal policies of a re-elected NDP government would be more effective than the UCP plan. That’s particularly important when it comes to moving forward pipeline projects, said Williams.
“Rachel Notley can really tout her record on actually making a difference … generating consensus across the country.”
Bratt said he expects Notley will continue to focus on Kenney and recent candidate controversies. “She is going to continue to attack Jason Kenney, continue to try to put doubts in people’s minds.”
Stephen Mandel: Prove a vote for the Alberta Party isn’t a waste.
The Alberta Party is a “tough sell” for voters, despite a good debate performance by Mandel, said Williams.
Calgary-Elbow candidate Greg Clark has the best chance of winning a riding, agreed Bratt.
In the debate, Mandel was able to raise the profile of the party, and maybe swing a few more votes to Clark, he said.
But Mandel, whose riding in Edmonton-McClung will be competitive, has a choice to make. He can door knock for his own seat or run the provincial campaign of an aspiring government.
“Does Mandel stay in Edmonton, or does he start to travel … it depends on what the goal is.”
David Khan: Door knock in Calgary-Mountain View.
Khan boosted his party’s recognition in the debate, even though the Liberals aren’t running a full 87 candidates, said Bratt.
But with the retirement of sole Liberal MLA David Swann (Calgary-Mountain View), Khan needs to focus on keeping that riding, he said.
“They’re not even trying to pretend that they’re running a provincial campaign. It’s about keeping Mountain View in Liberal hands and ensuring there’s a Liberal voice in 2023.”
Khan is running against the NDP’s Kathleen Ganley, well-known Calgary radio broadcaster Angela Kokott of the Alberta Party and Jeremy Wong of the UCP.
“That’s going to be one of the toughest ridings in this province.”
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