Byelection battle in Calgary-Foothills enters its final days

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The Calgary-Foothills byelection has been a rare summer election campaign, but the political battle has been fought in the growing shadow of gloomy economic times for Alberta.

Voters in the northwest riding will go to the polls Thursday after a four-week campaign that coincided with a weakening of oil prices.

Just this week, Finance Minister Joe Ceci announced the provincial deficit projection had increased to $5.9 billion, the federal government confirmed Canada was in a recession for the first half of the year, and hundreds more workers were laid off in the oilpatch.

Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt said the NDP government that took office in May inherited the economic malaise, but the downturn — and the NDP’s handling of it — has been an overarching issue in the campaign.

“The question is, do you like what the NDP is trying to do to deal with this or do you dislike what they are trying to do?” Bratt said Tuesday.

“They are the government and (byelections) tend to get focused on the government. Even though they are not the incumbent in Foothills, they are the government of the day.”

Calgary-Foothills has long been a stronghold for the Progressive Conservatives, who won every election in the riding since it was created in 1971. But as the four-decade-old Tory dynasty went down to defeat at the hand of the NDP on May 5, then-premier Jim Prentice abruptly resigned the seat he had just won, requiring a byelection.

Bratt said Calgary-Foothills remains a small-c conservative area. The Wildrose, which formed the official Opposition despite winning no seats in Calgary this spring, sees a chance to cement its status as the conservative alternative to the NDP by winning the seat, he said.

That potential opportunity in part explains the ferocity of the Wildrose attacks on the NDP, which have included Chinese-language mail-outs describing the government as pushing “communism,” said Bratt.

Wildrose candidate Prasad Panda, an oil company senior manager, said Tuesday the NDP has shown no leadership in dealing with the economic doldrums, noting the government’s first budget won’t be released for two months.

“The risk is, if they win this seat, they can claim that they have an approval for implementing their ideological agenda, which people are really worried about. And Wildrose will stop them in their tracks,” said Panda.

Opposition parties have taken aim at the NDP government for its economic policies, which include corporate tax increases, a review of Alberta’s energy royalties and a planned minimum wage hike.

The NDP is also going all out, with candidate Bob Hawkesworth touting the merits of the riding having a government MLA.

Premier Rachel Notley has made a number of appearances in the riding, where she lambasted the Wildrose and PCs as having no policy ideas beyond slashing budgets.

The NDP made a campaign push Tuesday with Hawkesworth appearing with Ceci and 11 other members of the party’s Calgary caucus. Hawkesworth acknowledged voters are feeling “anxious,” but said the government is simply cleaning up a mess left by the Tories.

He said a vote for the Wildrose would be a move in the wrong direction as he highlighted the NDP’s commitments to projects such as a new Calgary cancer centre and ring road, as well as his own record as a former alderman and MLA.

“We all know this (byelection) is not going to change the government or the opposition,” said Hawkesworth. “The key question that voters in Calgary-Foothills need to take into account is … whether they want to have an effective voice in government or not.”

Bratt said losing the byelection would be a blow to the NDP, but the party has three-and-a-half more years in government to cushion the blow.

He said the stakes are higher for the Wildrose and PCs, who have nominated restaurateur Blair Houston and are looking to rebound after falling to third place in the legislature. An NDP win would raise questions about the future of each party and the idea of uniting the right, Bratt added.

But the Tories’ Houston said Tuesday it is the NDP — which finished second in the riding last May 5 — that is out of the race.

“They do not have a chance … it’s us and Wildrose,” he said.

Other parties have also been trying to wedge themselves into what Bratt calls the “nasty” byelection fight between the NDP, Wildrose and PCs.

Alberta Party candidate Mark Taylor said there’s been “finger-pointing” by the larger parties, but few concrete ideas to improve the province’s economic situation.

“People at the doors are saying the same thing, ‘It’s great to have another voice in opposition, but if you’re not actually doing anything — beyond yelling — you’re not actually being effective,'” Taylor said.

“I’m not going to be yelling at the government for the next three years, I’m going to try to help them.”

Like the Alberta Party, the Liberals are also hoping to double their seat count in the legislature by winning Calgary-Foothills. Liberal Ali Bin Zahid said voters are looking for a centrist alternative compared to the extremes of the NDP and Wildrose.

This will be the third byelection in less than a year — Prentice was only first elected in the riding in a byelection last October — and there is fatigue with empty promises, he said.

“People do want accountability, people want trust, “said Zahid.

The race features seven candidates, including Independent Antoni Grochowski.

Green Leader Janet Keeping, who is hoping to win her party’s first legislature seat, said voters are concerned about the economy but also asking bigger questions, such as whether the province has become too dependent on the energy industry.

“There is an unease about where Alberta is going which is related to the (economy) … but there are deeper roots to it,” she said.

jwood@calgaryherald.com