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Calgarians are in a foul mood. And that could spell trouble for Naheed Nenshi

Claudia Cattaneo: Suddenly, the big ideas and high ideals Nenshi stood for in booming times aren’t so vital when everyone is tightening their belt

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Three years after cementing his rock star status by being honoured as the world’s top mayor, Calgary’s Naheed Nenshi is at risk of losing his job in next week’s municipal election, potentially presaging the beginning of the end of Alberta’s fling with progressive politicians.

Calgarians are in a foul mood. Their city is struggling with high unemployment, heaps of vacant downtown office space due to oilpatch layoffs that has pushed the municipal tax burden to remaining businesses, and a string of devastating energy project cancellations that are limiting future opportunities — including the Energy East pipeline last week.

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They’ve had it with anti-business governments, and Nenshi just happens to be the first politician up for re-election. He’s seen as running a fat and inefficient city hall that, like its senior government counterparts, raises taxes and spends without restraint. The big ideas and high ideals Nenshi — the first Muslim mayor of a large North American city — stood for in booming times aren’t so vital when everyone is tightening their belt.

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According to a Mainstream Research /Postmedia poll, released Friday, the gap between newcomer Bill Smith and Nenshi for the Oct. 16 vote is widening, with the mayor now trailing by 17 points. Smith had the support of 48 per cent of 1,500 Calgarians polled Oct. 3 and 4, while Nenshi had 31 per cent.

Though skeptical Nenshi is on his way out, Duane Bratt, chair of the department of economics, justice and policy studies at Mount Royal University, said the mayor is in a tough fight. He believes Calgary’s race is a preview of the 2019 provincial election.

That’s when Rachel Notley’s NDP government will be fighting Alberta’s re-invigorated conservatives, which re-united under the United Conservative Party.

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“Calgary will be the battle ground in that race,” Bratt said. “With the Conservatives out of power both federally and provincially, there are a lot of volunteers, donors, party members who are working on Bill Smith’s campaign. If they are able to unseat an incumbent and previously very popular mayor it would be a real sign of where the 2019 election is headed.”

Mayoral Candidate Bill Smith.
Mayoral Candidate Bill Smith. Photo by Andy Nichols / Postmedia

Bill Smith is a smooth-talking lawyer who's short on details but channelling the business community's frustrations with mayor Naheed Nenshi

Smith is a smooth-talking lawyer and former Progressive Conservative party president who’s short on details but channelling the business community’s frustrations with Nenshi, who has ruffled more than a few feathers among the elite, including the owners of the Calgary Flames.

“We have all had employees who show a lot of promise, they impress you, they have great credentials, their references all checked out,” Smith said this week at a mayoralty debate organized by the Calgary Chamber of Commerce. “But as time goes along you realize that they are maybe not the right person for the job. They don’t listen to advice, they don’t keep their promises, they don’t learn from their mistakes, they don’t work well with others and they always think they are the smartest person in the room. At some point, you realize they are the problem. They are holding you back. So what do you do? You fire them.”

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The biggest beef against Nenshi is the escalation of municipal taxes. Property taxes have increased by 51 per cent in the past seven years. Business taxes did even worse. That’s because the 30 per cent vacancy in office space in the core — the highest of any major global city — has meant other businesses have had to pick up the slack. According to the Calgary Chamber, some 6,000 businesses outside the downtown have seen their tax bills increase as much as 200 per cent. A record number of businesses — 7,124 — closed their doors in 2016. Meanwhile, the chamber complains an escalation of red tape is making it hard to attract new business to fill those empty office towers.

During last week’s debate, Nenshi said now’s not the time to cut back but to stimulate the economy with public spending. He talked up a $45 million fund created to help businesses outside the downtown core facing big tax increases and ongoing efforts to cut red tape. He warned against a return to a “colder, meaner, smaller, elite run city” and complained there is too much “down talk of Calgary,” a city recognized as one of the top in the world to live.

Too bad so many energy companies chose to trade it for lesser places with better opportunities and lower taxes.

ccattaneo@nationalpost.com

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