Turnout a question as voters head to polls Thursday in Calgary-Foothills byelection

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Voter turnout in the Calgary-Foothills byelection has been strong — at least in advance polls — but questions remain over how many riding residents will actually cast their ballots Thursday on election day.

Chief electoral officer Glen Resler is pleased with the 4,146 votes cast in advance polling, which makes up about 12 per cent of the total eligible voters and is higher than the 4,062 advance votes cast in the riding in the May 5 provincial election, or the 2,296 in last October’s byelection.

But Resler won’t make any predictions on whether that high turnout will translate into higher voter activity when the polls open Thursday.

“It’s hard to say,” Resler said in an interview Wednesday. “But we still prepare for the full turnout, whether it’s a byelection or not.”

There are a number of reasons for caution. While turnout was 54 per cent in the spring election, byelections are traditionally a hard sell for voters.

In the 10 provincial byelections held since 2000, voter turnout has averaged just 35 per cent. In the Oct. 27 byelection in Calgary-Foothills that saw then-premier Jim Prentice elected to the legislature, turnout in the riding was 36 per cent.

The fact there was a byelection last fall — and then a general election in May — means election weariness could also be a factor, with Calgary-Foothills voters selecting an MLA for the third time in less than a year. The byelection is needed because of Prentice’s decision to resign the seat he had just won on election night in spring.

This byelection campaign has also been fought during the dog days of August and the actual vote comes just before the Labour Day long weekend, which Resler noted could have boosted the advance polls, while possibly deflating election day turnout.

As well, the provincial political fight has coincided with a general federal election campaign.

Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt said potential voters may tune out of politics or confuse the provincial parties’ campaigns with the federal vote, which doesn’t occur until Oct. 19.

“It severely dampens voter turnout,” he said. “And I think there are other things that dampen voter turnout as well.”

Bratt said that makes the get-out-the-vote efforts of each of the campaigns extremely important.

The byelection race features seven candidates: Liberal Ali Bin Zahid, the Alberta Party’s Mark Taylor, Wildrose’s Prasad Panda, Green Janet Keeping, Progressive Conservative Blair Houston, the NDP’s Bob Hawkesworth and Independent Antoni Grochowski.

Much of the campaign has focused on economic issues, given the impact of falling oil prices, rising unemployment and the growing deficit in the province.

Polls will be open from 9 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Thursday and voters can locate their polling station on the Elections Alberta website, www.elections.ab.ca.

Calgary-Foothills was created as a riding in 1971 and has been won by the PCs — who were in power for 44 years until losing to the NDP this spring — in every election since that time.

As of the 2011 census, there were 43,015 residents in the northwest suburban riding. Average family income in 2010 was $157,219 and 44 per cent of residents aged over 15 held a university degree, diploma or certificate.

jwood@calgaryherald.com